ASIO: Foreign intelligence agencies targeting defence personnel, industry and AUKUS

Burgess, the current director-general of security in charge of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, confirmed that the country’s threat level will stay at “probable”.

He also detailed the threats facing Australia’s defence industry, Department of Defence and Australian Defence Force.

“Australia’s defence system will face greater threats from espionage, foreign interference and potentially sabotage over the next five years,” he said.

“Multiple countries are relentlessly seeking information about our military capabilities. Defence personnel are being targeted in person and online. Some were recently given gifts by international counterparts. The presents contained concealed surveillance devices.

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“AUKUS will remain a priority target for intelligence collection, including by countries we consider friendly.

“ASIO has identified foreign services seeking to target AUKUS to position themselves to collect on the capabilities, how Australia intends to use them, and to undermine the confidence of our allies.

“By 2030, as the submarine project matures, intelligence services are more likely to focus on foreign interference to undermine community support for the enterprise and potentially sabotage if regional tensions escalate.

“We expect sabotage will pose an increasing threat in the next five years, and this is not limited to an attack on defence assets. Even in the absence of conflict, foreign regimes are expected to become more determined to, and more capable of, prepositioning cyber access vectors they can exploit in the future.

“We are getting closer to the threshold for high-impact sabotage. ASIO assesses authoritarian regimes are growing more willing to disrupt or destroy critical infrastructure to impede decision-making, damage war-fighting capabilities, and sow social discord.

“Russia’s reckless campaign in Europe is a potent example. And while Russia’s demonstration that physical sabotage remains a weapon, it is cyber-enabled sabotage that presents a more acute concern for Australia.

“Cyber units from at least one nation-state routinely try to explore and exploit Australia’s critical infrastructure networks, almost certainly mapping systems, so they can lay down malware or maintain access in the future.

“We recently discovered one of those units targeting critical networks in the United States. ASIO worked closely with our American counterpart to evict the hackers and shut down their global accesses, including nodes here in Australia.

“My message to any foreign intelligence service targeting AUKUS is simple: where we see you attempting to conduct clandestine intelligence operations – and we will see you – you will be dealt with. Australia has strong laws against espionage and foreign interference, and ASIO works hand-in-glove with the Australian Federal Police. This may include publicity – something I know you hate. We will not only disrupt individuals acting as intelligence agents – we will disrupt your intelligence officers as well. Consider yourself warned.”

During the speech, Burgess also highlighted that espionage, foreign interference and politically motivated violence are now main-stays of Australia’s threat environment. These threats are expected to be joined in the future by the promotion of communal violence (between different groups), the inclusion of artificial intelligence/disinformation-supported threats and threats to border integrity.

“Espionage and foreign interference are already at extreme levels, and we anticipate they will only intensify,” according to the ASIO chief.

“In a more complicated, competitive world, nation-states will want greater insights into their enemies – and some of their friends – to better understand strategic intent and capability.

“In a more complicated, competitive world, regimes will seek to exert more influence and control over diaspora communities.

“Espionage and foreign interference will be enabled by advances in technology, particularly artificial intelligence and deeper online pools of personal data vulnerable to collection, exploitation and analysis by foreign intelligence services.

“In coming years, we could see state-sponsored or state-supported terrorism or criminal proxies being used to conduct sabotage.

“These things will challenge traditional definitions, categorisations, assumptions – and potentially, responses. An attempt to physically damage a nuclear-powered submarine could simultaneously be an act of sabotage, an act of politically motivated violence, an act of foreign interference and an attack on a defence system.”

Australia will likely face security threats in the form of “high-harm” activities and coerced repatriations, according to Burgess.

“The depths some regimes are willing to plumb in pursuit of their strategic interests. This is why we assess the security environment is becoming more degraded,” he said.

“If the spy game has a rule book, it is being rewritten. If there are red lines, they are being blurred – or deliberately rubbed out.

“A small number of authoritarian regimes are behaving more aggressively, more recklessly, more dangerously. More willing to engage in what we call ‘high-harm’ activities.

“Russia’s brazen acts of sabotage in Europe show authoritarian regimes are willing to use a wider range of tools and tactics to coerce, intimidate and damage perceived adversaries. As a supporter of and supplier to Ukraine, it is conceivable Russia could also target Australia for sabotage.

“Apart from sabotage, we’ve seen several of our closest allies dealing with what appear to be state-sponsored murders and attempted murders.

“ASIO investigations have identified at least three different countries plotting to physically harm people living in Australia. In a small number of cases, we held grave fears for the life of the person being targeted.

“Coerced repatriations are insidious; they undermine Australian sovereignty and law enforcement processes. They are also significantly under-reported to Australian authorities. ASIO is aware of at least four countries that have plotted this sort of despicable behaviour in Australia.”

Burgess also highlighted increasing threats to radicalise Australia’s youngest members and the “generation of digital natives”. He confirmed that in the future, AI-fuelled algorithms will make it easier for extremist material to find vulnerable adolescent minds, and it will be easier to find extremist material.

“The future threat environment will be more difficult than anything we have seen in at least 50 years,” he said.

“Increasing tensions in our society, geopolitical competition and technological advances will create simultaneous, cascading and compounding threats. An era of strategic surprise and security fragility – dynamic, diverse and degrading.

“While the outlook to 2030 is difficult, we cannot be defeatist or insecure about our security. We can and should have confidence in our ability to respond.

“The dynamics I’ve described are not inevitable. The threats are not insurmountable. Foreign intelligence services are not invincible.

“We will need to consider how we – which means all of us here today and all Australians who advance our nation’s interests – shape our strategic environment to deter foreseeable challenges.

“I can assure you ASIO will use all of the tools we have available to identify and counter these threats. Our powers are significant, our capabilities are exceptional, our resolve is resolute. Strategic fragility, yes, strategic fluidity perhaps – but not strategic futility. Thank you.”